Will a new interest rate trend form?

Since the beginning of July, some banks have adjusted their deposit interest rates up, while most have maintained the old interest rates or slightly reduced them. Will there be a new trend in both deposit and lending interest rates in the near future?

Challenges to maintain low deposit interest rates

According to the Vietnam Banking Association, since the beginning of July 2025, a number of commercial banks have increased their deposit interest rates for terms of 1 - 36 months by 0.1 - 0.2%/year. However, the latest information from the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) also shows that a number of banks continued to adjust deposit interest rates down in July.

Increases and decreases in opposite directions

On July 22, the SBV said that since the beginning of the year, deposit interest rates at commercial banks have generally remained stable, in which some banks have made slight adjustments.

Notably, since the beginning of July, a number of commercial banks have continued to adjust deposit interest rates down. Specifically, BacABank reduced 0.1 percentage points for all terms and types of deposits; VIB reduced 0.1%/year for 36-month term for over-the-counter deposits from 1 to under 5 billion VND; Bao Viet Bank reduced from 0.15 to 0.2%/year for terms from 6 to 13 months.

Previously, some banks also reduced deposit interest rates. For example, LPBank adjusted down 0.2%/year for online deposits from 18 to 60 months; NCB reduced 0.1%/year depending on the deposit term.

Although the mobilization interest rate is low, it does not reduce the "attraction" of the deposit channel.

On the contrary, market research shows that the Vietnam Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam (VCBNeo) has recently increased its deposit interest rate by 0.2%/year for deposits with terms from 1 to 7 months.

Meanwhile, VPBank increased its savings interest rate for terms from 1 to 36 months by 0.1%/year; Techcombank increased its deposit interest rate from 0.1 - 0.2%/year for terms from 1 to 36 months...

In addition, some banks also apply preferential programs, giving additional interest rates to depositors, bringing the highest deposit interest rate close to 6%/year.

In general, the 12-month deposit interest rate of banks fluctuates mainly from 4.6 - 6%/year. Some banks listed very high deposit interest rates, up to 9.65%/year, but on the condition that customers must have deposits of up to thousands of billions of VND.

According to the macro update report of VNDirect Securities Company, as of July 11, 2025, the average 12-month deposit interest rate of commercial banks increased slightly to 4.78%/year, up 0.01 percentage point compared to the end of June, but still 0.08 percentage point lower than at the beginning of the year.

VNDirect believes that this increase, especially at private banks, reflects increased liquidity pressure at the end of June 2025, when credit demand is abundant (credit increased by 9.9% compared to the beginning of the year - the highest increase since 2022).

The economic recovery, many orders signed and paid to large customers also led to the need for capital mobilization of banks to lend to businesses, thereby causing some banks to increase deposit interest rates. Specifically, credit growth is forecast to recover more clearly with the warming of the economy in the second half of 2025 with the main drivers: The sharp increase in import turnover in recent months is a sign of positive prospects for the manufacturing industry and export activities in the coming time; the real estate market is flourishing; domestic consumption demand is increasing strongly...

Notably, although the deposit interest rate is low, it does not reduce the "attractiveness" of the deposit channel. According to the Vietnam Banking Association, deposits of residential customers have grown for 15 consecutive months and officially exceeded the 15 million billion mark in April 2025. "One of the reasons why people still put money in banks despite low interest rates is that compared to other investment channels such as stocks, gold, real estate, digital currency, etc., savings always have the advantage of being safe and less volatile," analyzed Dr. Nguyen Tri Hieu, a finance and banking expert.

Therefore, in the coming time, to mobilize more capital, experts predict that banks will increase interest rates.

What are the lending interest rates?

The State Bank of Vietnam said that, in parallel with the downward trend of deposit interest rates, lending interest rates have also continued to decline since the beginning of the year. Up to now, the average lending interest rate is only at 6.23%/year, down 0.7 percentage points compared to the end of 2024. This development is expected to actively support businesses and individuals in expanding production and business.

According to experts, lending interest rates are low thanks to the stable deposit market. Experts from MB Securities Company (MBS) forecast that although the deposit interest rate level has shown signs of stability, this is not the lowest level and there is still room for further reduction in the third quarter of 2025.

However, by the fourth quarter of 2025, deposit interest rates may increase slightly as credit growth tends to increase sharply towards the end of the year in the context of increasing credit demand. MBS expects the 12-month term interest rates of major commercial banks to fluctuate around 4.7% this year.

From a macro perspective, the strategic report of Dragon Capital Securities Company (VDSC) stated that the SBV will continue to pursue a controlled loose monetary policy. The regulatory agency is expected to continue to provide liquidity through the open market, expanding refinancing loans to banks participating in restructuring weak banks (zero-dong banks). In the coming time, it is not excluded that the credit ceiling will be lifted.

In addition, the SBV will also encourage credit institutions to implement preferential loan packages to direct capital flows into priority sectors according to policy objectives.

At the Government's online conference with localities on the 2025 economic growth scenario and tasks and solutions to achieve the 2025 growth target on July 16, 2025, SBV Governor Nguyen Thi Hong affirmed that the SBV will continue to maintain the operating interest rate at a low level to orientate the reduction of lending interest rates, creating favorable conditions for businesses and people to access capital.

The SBV also directed credit institutions to reduce operating costs, promote the application of information technology, digital transformation and implement other solutions in an effort to reduce lending interest rates

(Source: vnbusiness)